Direct answers to the most common questions about hurricane forecasts, risk, preparation, and how GetStormRisk works.
GetStormRisk is an independent hurricane tracking platform that pulls live advisory data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and lets you check any U.S. address against the official forecast cone. Unlike a raw forecast map, GetStormRisk personalizes the risk to your specific home or property and sends email alerts when a storm's cone approaches your saved locations. All forecast data originates directly from NHC — GetStormRisk is not affiliated with NOAA or NHC.
Track live Atlantic storms at GetStormRisk.The hurricane forecast cone — officially called the "cone of uncertainty" — is published by the National Hurricane Center and represents the probable path of the center of a tropical storm or hurricane. According to NHC, the cone is sized so that the storm's center will remain within it roughly 70% of the time. The cone expands over time because track uncertainty increases with distance. Importantly, the cone does not represent the storm's full wind field — dangerous winds, rain, and storm surge can extend well beyond the cone.
NHC explanation of the forecast cone. ↗If your address falls inside the NHC forecast cone, the center of the storm has approximately a 70% probability of passing within the cone's boundaries. This does not mean the storm will directly hit your address — the center could pass anywhere within the cone. It does mean you are within range of meaningful tropical storm or hurricane impacts including winds, rain, and storm surge and should actively monitor official guidance and prepare.
See our hurricane preparation checklist.The National Hurricane Center issues advisories on a routine schedule: every 6 hours for most storms (at 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM, and 5 AM EDT/AST). When a storm is within 24 hours of landfall, NHC issues intermediate advisories every 3 hours. Special advisories can be issued at any time for significant changes. GetStormRisk ingests the NHC data every 15 minutes during active storms to minimize the lag between issuance and display.
See our full data update methodology.All forecast data on GetStormRisk comes directly from the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov), operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). GetStormRisk ingests NHC's CurrentStorms.json feed and the associated GIS forecast cone and track shapefiles. No data is fabricated, interpolated, or smoothed — only what NHC officially issued is displayed, with the source advisory ID and timestamp on every view.
Read more about our data sources and methodology.A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible in an area, typically within 48 hours. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected in an area, typically within 36 hours. The distinction matters for timing: a watch is a signal to prepare; a warning is a signal that time to prepare is running out. Both require immediate action — evacuations are often ordered under a watch, not just a warning.
NHC explanation of watches and warnings. ↗Storm surge is an abnormal rise of seawater above the normal tide level generated by a hurricane's winds and low pressure as the storm pushes water toward the coast. It is the leading cause of hurricane deaths in the United States, not wind. A major hurricane can produce a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet in a matter of hours, inundating coastal communities faster than residents can react. The storm surge is separate from — and often more lethal than — the wind category assigned to the storm.
See our full glossary definition of storm surge.Hurricane categories are assigned using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates storms from Category 1 (74–95 mph sustained winds) through Category 5 (157+ mph). The category reflects wind speed only — it does not account for storm surge, rainfall, size, or the storm's speed of forward motion. A Category 1 hurricane hitting a densely populated, low-lying coastal area can cause more deaths and damage than a Category 5 making landfall in a sparsely populated area.
See the full Saffir-Simpson scale breakdown.The most important step is to follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency and the National Hurricane Center. If an evacuation order is issued for your zone, leave immediately. If sheltering in place, stay in an interior room away from windows, have a 72-hour supply kit ready, and monitor conditions via a NOAA weather radio or official local sources. Never enter floodwater and do not go outside during the eye of the storm.
See our complete hurricane preparation checklist.Emergency managers typically recommend evacuating 48 to 72 hours before projected landfall for mandatory evacuation zones. Waiting until a warning is issued leaves insufficient time — roads become gridlocked, fuel runs out, and bridges may be closed once winds exceed tropical storm force (39 mph). For coastal Zone A properties, many emergency managers recommend evacuating at the first watch, not the warning. GetStormRisk alerts can give you an earlier signal than waiting for news coverage.
Read our evacuation planning guidance.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is a division of NOAA's National Weather Service and is the official authority for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. NHC forecasters use aircraft reconnaissance (Hurricane Hunter flights), satellite imagery, Doppler radar, ocean buoys, and numerical weather models to produce advisories. NHC's 5-day track forecasts have improved dramatically over the past 20 years — today's 3-day track forecast is as accurate as the 1-day forecast was in 1990.
About the National Hurricane Center. ↗NHC 5-day track forecast errors average roughly 200–250 miles, meaning the storm center could be anywhere within that radius of the forecast position. 1-day errors average around 50 miles, and 2-day errors around 90 miles. Intensity forecasts are less reliable than track forecasts — rapid intensification (a wind increase of 35+ mph in 24 hours) remains difficult to predict. This inherent uncertainty is why the forecast cone widens over time and why preparation should begin well before a storm's track is certain.
NHC forecast verification statistics. ↗A Category 3 hurricane brings devastating damage from sustained winds of 111–129 mph. Well-built frame homes may sustain major roof and structural damage. Electricity and water service may be unavailable for days to weeks. Mobile homes and poorly constructed structures face near-complete destruction. The accompanying storm surge for a Category 3 ranges from 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels — enough to submerge entire ground floors in coastal communities. Category does not determine your specific risk; storm surge, your elevation, and your distance from the coast matter as much.
See damage descriptions for every hurricane category.GetStormRisk lets you save specific addresses and receive an email alert when a hurricane's NHC forecast cone enters within your chosen threshold distance of that address. Alerts are sent once per NHC advisory — no spam. You can save multiple locations such as your home, a family member's home, or a vacation property. Alerts are triggered by the official NHC cone polygon, not by subjective risk assessments.
Set up hurricane alerts for your address.The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30 each year. Peak activity typically occurs from mid-August through mid-October, with the statistical peak on September 10. The season is defined by NOAA based on when ocean water temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea are most favorable for tropical storm development. Storms can and do form outside the official season dates, but most named storms occur within this window.
Track active Atlantic storms at GetStormRisk.